理解当代中国（十六）|【视频&双语】为什么我们对今年经济充满信心

作为世界第二大经济体，中国的经济历来备受瞩目。近日，中国部署了2023年的经济工作，为中国的经济发展翻开了崭新的篇章，也让我们对中国新一年的经济充满了信心。那中国的信心出于何处？

China’s economy, the second largest in the world, has always been in the spotlight. Recently, the country has deployed its economic work for 2023, opening a new chapter for its economic development and filling us with confidence in China’s economy in the new year. But where does this confidence come from?

从宏观的时代背景来说，伴随着“新十条”的发布，中国的疫情防控进入了新阶段。虽然与病毒的斗争尚未结束，但疫情政策的优化无疑将有助于经济的推动和往来、增加经济的热度、提升经济各种要素和商品的流动性，简而言之就是搞活了经济。

Looking at the bigger picture, the 10 new prevention and control measures ushered in a new stage of China’s COVID-19 response. Although the pandemic has not yet come to an end, the optimized strategy will undoubtedly boost economic activity, and facilitate the flow of economic factors and commodities. Put simply, the optimized strategy has reinvigorated the economy.

大街上的车流、商场里顾客、旅游app上的订单都多了起来。新的疫情政策和经济政策携手而来，也将中国经济带入新的发展阶段。

The roads are busier, the malls have more shoppers, and travel apps have seen an uptick in customers. The optimized COVID-19 strategy and updated economic policy have brought China’s economy into a new development stage.

就具体的经济政策而言，“扩大内需”成为中国2023年“稳增长”目标的首要任务。据预测，2023年的国际环境较低迷，外需总体疲软，不同于凯恩斯主义的“需求创造供给”，中国强调通过高质量的供给，即不断创新从而生产更高层次的产品来创造有效需求。

In terms of specific economic measures, “expanding domestic demand” has become a top priority in achieving the goal of ensuring stable growth in 2023. Predictions for this year depict a bleak global economic outlook with sluggish external demand. In contrast with the Keynesian belief that “demand creates its own supply,” China emphasizes generating effective demand through high-quality supply, which means continuously innovating to create higher-level products.

（图片来源：新华社）

举个例子，手机市场本已饱和，但智能手机的出现重新定义了这个产品，70亿人对这个产品的需求从无到有地被创造了出来。这也是中国持续推进供给式改革的底层逻辑。

For example, despite the saturated cellphone market, the emergence of smartphones redefined cellphones, creating demand from 7 billion people for the new products. This represents the underlying logic behind China’s efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform.

据世行最新报告，2013年到2021年中国对世界经济增长的平均贡献率为38.6%，超过G7国家贡献率的总和。“扩大内需”意味着进一步挖掘中国14亿人口的超大规模市场潜力，而这对于中国经济和全球经济来说，都将是巨大的驱动力。

According to a recent report from the World Bank, China contributed an average of 38.6% to global economic growth from 2013 to 2021, more than the G7 countries combined. Expanding domestic demand means further tapping the huge potential of China’s supersized market of 1.4 billion people. This will translate into a critical driving force to the economies of both China and the world.

（图片来源：华春莹Twitter）

此外，“毫不动摇地发展民营经济”也是重点之一。如华为、阿里巴巴、字节跳动等民营企业在中国经济上占比大，民营经济在当前阶段已经成为了中国经济的主要组成部分。

In addition, developing the private sector is also a key priority. With private businesses, such as Huawei, Alibaba and ByteDance, accounting for a large proportion of China’s economy, the private sector has now become a major economic player in the country.

据统计，2022年的前11个月，中国民营企业进出口规模达19.41万亿元，占中国外贸总值的50.6%，尤其是在外贸新业态的持续发展方面，民营企业更具活力和韧性。

Statistics show that in the first 11 months of 2022, the import and export volume of China’s private businesses amounted to 19.41 trillion yuan (about $2.82 trillion), or 50.6% of the country’s total. Private businesses have also demonstrated stronger vitality and resilience, especially in terms of the sustainable development of new forms of foreign trade.

因此中国大力扶持民营经济，不断要求将民营与国有企业平等对待，帮助中小微企业度过疫情的难关的做法，是放水养鱼，是助力他们健康发展。而民营经济的繁荣同样会反哺经济，包括创造更多的就业机会，保证居民可支配收入的持续发展，从而进一步拉动内需，促进消费。基于此，我们对今年民营经济的发展也同样充满了信心。

Therefore, China is scaling up its support for the private sector, continuously urging equal treatment of private businesses and their state-owned counterparts, and helping micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises to overcome difficulties posed by the pandemic. These supporting measures aim to promote the sound development of private businesses. Likewise, the thriving of private businesses will in return bolster the economy by creating more jobs, ensuring the continued growth of disposable incomes, and further expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption. As such, we are also confident about the growth of the private sector in 2023.

过去的疫情三年，中国经济经历了多重的考验和挑战，而今年注定是崭新的一年、拼经济的一年。但我们有政策、有创新、有动力，因此也有信心说中国经济必将稳步向前，更将持续成为世界经济引擎，拉动世界经济增长。

China’s economy has withstood multiple tests and challenges during the three years since the outbreak of the pandemic, and the year 2023 is bound to be a brand new journey in striving for economic growth. However, with the current policies, innovation capacity and various driving forces, we are confident that China’s economy will grow steadily, continue to act as an engine for the global economy and propel further growth.

来源：甲申同文翻译